As Claire (foreground) was analyzing her maps she said, “
Predicting tomorrow was pretty easy, but the
next days are hard.” She realized that short range predictions are easier to
make than predictions down the road. (Katie Moody is in the background)
By Matt Nicholas, E-M Science
Instructor
Amateur Meteorologists Katie Moody and Claire Mounce have been
hard at work tracking the wild weather over the last two weeks. Between 30 mile
per hour winds and Halloween snow, Mother Nature has shown her fierce side as
of late. Katie and Claire have been observing and analyzing weather maps, as
well as, recording various data points including: Temperature, Pressure, Wind,
and Clouds. They then were tasked with identifying patterns and predicting
future weather. Which as we all know from our love/hate relationships with Ken
Siemek and Brad Anderson is no easy task. The students are finding weather
prediction is not a science of absolutes, but one of using probability to
predict the most likely outcomes. We were able to make good predictions with
just our minds, paper, and pencils. Imagine what can be done with the data
gathered by high tech satellites in orbit and processed by supercomputers on
the ground. We all give the weatherman a hard time when he is wrong, but we
have to remember the atmosphere is a turbulent place that can change at the
drop of a hat.
As we move forward will our study of meteorology, we will continue
to monitor the weather coming our way, and try to understand the causes behind
it. The students, of course, usually find our study of Severe Weather Events to
be very exciting, and we will be diving into their causes and structures soon.
We will also study our changing climate and how those climatic changes will
affect our ability to make accurate predictions. We will also be looking into current
and future impacts of climate change on human and animal populations around the
world, as well as, associated geopolitical impacts.
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